Research should be judged by the quality of the decisions it helps inform. Below is a selection of calls we made through our research and
how those views ultimately played out. We update this page as our theses evolve and new calls reach their conclusion.
With both currencies treated as oil proxies, we favored the cheaper NOK for its stronger sovereign backing and greater leverage to elevated oil. NOK/CAD moved 4% in our favor. We closed in June as oil normalized and the thesis’s main driver faded.
We argued the war would not end the bull market: the expansion remained solid, oil was below growth-damaging levels, and financial conditions were accommodative. The bull market held, and the AI trade resumed once the dust settled.
As an LNG shock sent European gas prices surging, we expected the UK’s greater gas sensitivity to keep the BoE slower to cut than the ECB. GBP/EUR rose from 1.145 to 1.18 by July 2026.
When the Iran conflict closed Hormuz and sent crude higher, we argued the supply shock would give the dollar both a safe-haven bid and a net-energy-exporter advantage. The dollar index rose more than 3% over the four months to June.
We saw H200 approval as a catalyst for China to close the AI gap and stayed long Nvidia and Chinese AI. Open-weight models reached roughly 30% of global usage. Nvidia gained over 25% in three months and Zhipu over 600%.
We saw the yen rally and Plaza Accord talk as a positioning reset, not a regime change, as Japan’s fiscal and term-premium dynamics dominated rate differentials. USD/JPY rose from 155 to 163, a 40-year high. Bloomberg later cited our analysis.
We carried our early-2025 gold overweight into 2026 on fiscal deterioration and returning inflation while adding broader commodities. Gold suffered a double-digit drawdown as the Iran shock lifted real yields and the dollar; aluminium gained 14% and copper 4%.
We called a regime shift away from US leadership, favoring cheaper international equities, especially AI-adjacent technology. Over the next five months, Korea returned 47%, Taiwan 26%, and Japan 13%, each outperforming the US.
We argued agentic AI was breaking the per-seat model and that SaaS would keep underperforming, with only select names such as Datadog outperforming. The sector fell more than 20% over the following months even as the Nasdaq rose.
With the IEA projecting a record 4m b/d surplus, we expected lower oil and favored consumers over producers. Our flagged Hormuz risk then materialized, sending crude and producers higher while consumers sold off.
With manufacturing in its longest contraction in decades, we avoided industrials broadly and favored AI data-center and electrification leaders. Over the next six months, Vertiv gained 80% and GE Vernova 60%, versus roughly 10% for S&P 500 Industrials.
While consensus expected a smooth return to 2%, distorted housing data and rising industrial commodities pointed to renewed price pressures. CPI rose from 2.4% to 4.2% by May 2026, though the oil shock amplified the move.
Big Pharma’s $314bn patent cliff made Chinese molecule licensing structural, but our call came late. After gaining another 10%, the index reversed and we exited down roughly 10%.
Long-end yields were rising on an exploding term premium, and we stayed short long-duration Treasuries into sticky inflation. Over the five months to May 2026, the 10-year rose from 4.1% to 4.6% and the 30-year from 4.8% to 5.1%.
Our view was that the AI-chip market would broaden beyond Nvidia (Google’s TPUs winning real traction with big buyers like Meta and Anthropic) and that Alphabet was the cleaner way to own the shift. Alphabet rose 34% over the six months that followed, against 23% for Nvidia.
We argued electricity was the binding constraint on AI, and that the overlooked play was the power and grid complex. Over the seven months to June 2026, the S&P Global Clean Energy Transition Index rose 23%, beating Nvidia’s 8% though lagging the broader semiconductor index.
With Bitcoin near $100,000, we flagged a demand problem behind the bullish ETF and regulatory headlines (building outflows, the collapsed MicroStrategy premium, a broken altcoin complex) and called it a top. Within six months it had fallen roughly 40%.
Our thematic research launched three frontier-tech baskets (AI, space, and humanoid robotics) on the view that each would reshape markets and economies in the years ahead. All three have since posted strong gains and meaningfully outperformed broad equities.